Hollie Doyle blog: Earth Shot can deny Epsom heroine

Earth Shot’s Curragh showdown looms after Newbury’s star turns

Saturday’s card at Newbury delivered the kind of racing that reminds us why flat season thrills: sharp speed, tactical nous, and a few horses stepping up when it mattered. Among them, William Haggas’s Binhareer looked the pick of the Hackwood Stakes bunch, while Archie Watson’s Vollering—drawn perfectly on the outside in stall 26—could make the Weatherbys Super Sprint her own. But the bigger narrative is already forming at the Curragh, where Hollie Doyle’s Irish Oaks preview has sharpened into a duel between Earth Shot and the Epsom heroine, Ocean.

Newbury’s winners and why they matter now

Tom Marquand’s Saturday had the rhythm of a jockey in full flow. In the Group Three Hackwood Stakes, Binhareer—despite a rough renewal of the Wokingham Stakes—looked the natural pick for Group company, suggesting Haggas’s yard is back on the front foot after a quiet spell. The Listed Steventon Stakes then saw Oceans Four, a Group winner at Chantilly last September, rediscover his best form at Sandown and Hampton Court, where he outran massive odds in the latter. This drop in grade could unlock his potential, particularly with the new cheekpieces he’s wearing.

Over in the Weatherbys Super Sprint, Watson’s Vollering—drawn in stall 26 with the high ground—has the profile of a horse built for a fast, straight dash. Her latest third in stakes company at Deauville came off a blistering debut there, and Marquand’s record in the race (a win on Eddie’s Boy four years ago) adds weight to the optimism. With Richard Hannon’s three wins in eight years still fresh in the record books, this feels like a race where the draw isn’t just a number—it’s a tactical advantage that can shape the entire contest.

Ocean vs Earth Shot: the Irish Oaks clash takes shape

The Curragh’s Classic weekend is shaping up to be a rematch of sorts. Earth Shot, fresh from her Epsom heroics, will face a horse in Oceans Four who’s quietly compiling a strong profile. The three-year-old’s Chantilly Group win last September—before a tough campaign in which he never ran a bad race—shows he’s Group-class, and his reappearance form at Sandown and Ascot suggests he’s peaking at the right time. The cheekpieces could be the difference, giving him the edge in a race where tactical patience often wins the day.

Doyle’s confidence in Earth Shot isn’t blind optimism; it’s rooted in the horse’s profile. A Group winner at Chantilly, Oceans Four’s consistency—despite a tough year—marks him as a horse who thrives when the ground suits and the trip fits. The Curragh’s testing conditions could play to his strengths, especially if the rain stays away, while Earth Shot’s bold front-running style may need to adapt to the undulating track.

The tactical edge: why the Curragh suits Ocean’s style

Classic weekends reward adaptability, and the Curragh’s undulating track demands horses who can settle and quicken. Oceans Four’s Sandown and Hampton Court runs proved he can handle pressure, while his Chantilly win showed he relishes a test of stamina over a mile and a quarter. Earth Shot, by contrast, may need to dictate early—something Doyle will be watching closely, particularly if the ground softens.

For Marquand, the Super Sprint ride on Vollering is a chance to add another winner to his Saturday tally. Watson’s filly’s draw advantage isn’t just about space; it’s about avoiding the traffic that can ruin a race in a straight dash. If she reproduces her Deauville burst of speed, the high draw could be decisive, turning the race into a procession before the final furlong.

Newbury’s Saturday was a reminder that flat racing’s beauty lies in its unpredictability. But at the Curragh, the Irish Oaks is shaping up to be a clash of styles: Earth Shot’s bold front-running against Ocean’s patient grind. With Doyle’s backing for the latter, the stage is set for a tactical duel where the winner might not need to be the fastest—but will certainly be the smartest.