Kevin Blake’s York tips: Ebor Festival day four picks

York’s Ebor Festival reaches its climax on Saturday with a fiercely competitive fourth day, and Sky Sports Racing’s Kevin Blake has identified three runners to follow across the card. The softening ground has tested connections all week, but the expert believes the final day offers one last chance to land a winner before the meeting closes. With the Sky Bet Ebor Handicap as the headline act, Blake’s trio of selections span a competitive Strensall Stakes, a progressive sprint handicap, and a progressive handicapper stepping up in trip.

Archivist ready to strike in the Strensall Stakes

The opening race of interest is the Sky Bet Strensall Stakes at 1:50, where Blake turns to the Hamad Al Jehani-trained Archivist. The five-year-old was previously backed in the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot on 1 July, only to finish seventh of 22 runners, but bounced back at Goodwood on 30 July with a clear victory in the Golden Mile, winning by two and a half lengths under James Doyle. That display underlined his readiness for stakes company and confirmed his liking for the course and distance. The ground is expected to ease further by race time, which should not unduly trouble a horse proven on softer terrain—he has won on good-to-soft and soft in his last three starts. While the wide draw of 11 in a field of 12 is less than ideal, Blake argues the price remains generous for a horse with a proven turn of foot and a recent win at this level.

Dance In The Storm primed for a bold run in the Constantine

Blake’s second selection is the Sky Bet Constantine Handicap at 4:10, where the Andrew Balding-trained Dance In The Storm is his target. The filly has won twice over seven furlongs this season—at Musselburgh on 12 June and at Newmarket on 28 July—and has been steadily rising in the weights, yet the market has consistently reacted positively to her efforts. That suggests she is regarded as more than a handicapper, and Blake believes a drop to six furlongs could unlock further improvement. With a career-high mark of 104 to overcome, the step down in trip may prove decisive, and her recent form hints she is still progressing. She has run three times at this course, including a second at the same fixture last year, and her tactical speed suggests she will relish the quicker ground.

Diego El Queso set for a progressive finale in the Dav Reid

The meeting’s concluding race, the Sky Bet Dav Reid Finale Handicap at 5:20, sees Blake back the Ger Lyons-trained Diego El Queso. The four-year-old has shown a clear upward curve this season, winning a handicap at a progressive mark of 99 at Leopardstown on 16 August, and building a profile that suggests he is still improving. With the ground expected to remain on the softer side, his profile looks well suited to the conditions—he has won on good-to-soft and has never been worse than third in his last six starts. Blake views him as a horse with a live chance of making all in a race where stamina and a sound recent record are at a premium, particularly if the pace is steady early.

Tactical angles: ground, trip, and market signals

Three themes stand out across Blake’s trio. First, the softening ground has narrowed fields and raised the importance of proven form on similar terrain: Archivist has won on soft ground, Dance In The Storm has run well on good-to-soft, and Diego El Queso has never been beaten on ground softer than good-to-soft this season. Second, two of the selections step down in trip—Dance In The Storm drops from seven to six furlongs, and Diego El Queso’s 1m2f handicap is a cut from his last run over 1m4f—moves Blake believes could unlock latent ability in horses whose form suggests they are capable of more. Third, the market’s reaction to Dance In The Storm and her progressive mark points to a horse whose ceiling may still be higher than her current rating; she was sent off at 11/2 last time out and has since drifted to around 7/1 in the ante-post for the Constantine, a drift that Blake interprets as value rather than doubt.

The Ebor Festival ends where it began: with uncertainty and opportunity. Blake’s three runners reflect that balance—horses with proven ability, recent form, and angles that could tip the scales in their favour. If the ground eases further, Archivist may find his soft-ground pedigree decisive, while Dance In The Storm and Diego El Queso could benefit from the tactical flexibility of shorter trips and progressive profiles. One thing is certain: York’s final card of 2026 will demand precision from connections and riders alike, and Blake’s trio offer a clear path through the noise.