Why Soccer Feels Boring: The Science of Luck and Skill – Quillette

Football’s reputation as the world’s most popular sport is under strain. The game’s global audience remains vast, but a growing chorus of fans and pundits argue that matches have become less compelling—less a test of skill, more a lottery of luck. The latest analysis from Quillette frames the issue not as a crisis of quality, but as a structural one: the sport’s rules and modern tactics have tilted the balance toward randomness, making outcomes feel increasingly detached from performance. The piece points to a paradox at the heart of the modern game: the more teams obsess over control, the more they surrender it to chance.

The Data Behind the Dullness

Football’s decline in perceived excitement isn’t just anecdotal. Research cited in the Quillette piece highlights how the sport’s scoring dynamics have shifted over decades. Where once a single moment of brilliance—think Maradona’s 1986 World Cup solo goal or Zidane’s volley in the 2002 Champions League final—could decide a game, today’s matches are increasingly shaped by high-pressure turnovers, long balls launched into crowded boxes, and defensive blocks that neutralize creativity before it begins. The result? A higher proportion of games decided by isolated errors or deflected shots rather than sustained attacking play. The article points to the rise of “low-scoring, high-variance” football as a key driver of fan frustration—where even dominant teams like Manchester City in the 2022-23 season, who averaged 68% possession across their Premier League campaign, struggle to convert pressure into goals, and underdogs like Brentford in 2023-24 win through sheer chance, such as a 1-0 victory over Liverpool where the only shot on target was deflected in off a defender.

This isn’t just about aesthetics. The data suggests that the sport’s tactical evolution has inadvertently amplified luck’s role. Press-resistant systems, like those pioneered by Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City or Julian Nagelsmann’s Bayern Munich, prioritize ball retention but often rely on a single moment of miscontrol—a misplaced pass under pressure, a mistimed interception—to create chances. Meanwhile, ultra-defensive setups—like those deployed by teams such as Atalanta under Gian Piero Gasperini in Serie A or Nottingham Forest under Steve Cooper in the Premier League—reduce clear-cut opportunities to a trickle, turning matches into a battle of attrition where one mistake can decide everything. The article underscores how these trends have made football feel less like a chess match and more like a coin toss, with outcomes increasingly hinging on factors beyond a team’s control: the bounce of a ball, the timing of a deflection, or the fatigue of a defender in the 90th minute.

Why the Fix Isn’t Simple

Critics of football’s current state often call for radical rule changes—shorter games, smaller goals, or even radical scoring systems—to inject more goals and drama. But the Quillette analysis argues that such solutions overlook football’s core tension: the sport’s beauty lies in its simplicity and universality. Altering the laws to favor attacking football risks diluting what makes the game distinct. A 30-minute match might produce more goals, but it would also strip away the tactical depth and endurance that define football’s appeal. The article cites the example of futsal, where smaller pitches and fewer players create a high-scoring spectacle, but one that bears little resemblance to the 11-a-side game that has captivated billions for over a century.

Instead, the piece suggests a more nuanced approach: tweaking existing rules to reduce randomness without compromising the sport’s essence. Proposals like stricter handball interpretations—such as penalizing accidental handballs in dangerous areas, as seen in the Premier League’s 2020-21 season under Mike Dean’s stricter enforcement—tighter offside enforcement to prevent marginal gains from stifling attacks, or even limited substitutions to prevent late-game chaos where tired defenders are picked apart by a single counterattack, are floated as potential remedies. The goal isn’t to turn football into a high-scoring spectacle, but to ensure that goals reflect skill more consistently. The article cautions, however, that resistance to change is baked into football’s culture. Governing bodies like FIFA and UEFA, clubs with entrenched traditions, and even fans who romanticize the past often prioritize stability over innovation, making even minor adjustments—a change to the offside law, a tweak to the handball rule—a political minefield.

The Tactical Paradox

Modern football’s tactical paradox is that the more teams prioritize control, the less control they often end up having. The Quillette piece highlights how pressing systems, while designed to force errors, frequently backfire when opponents bypass the trap with a single long ball, as seen in Liverpool’s 2019-20 Champions League campaign where Atletico Madrid exploited their high press with diagonal switches of play. Similarly, possession-heavy approaches can suffocate creativity if the final third lacks precision, as illustrated by Arsenal’s struggles under Unai Emery in 2019-20, where their 65% possession in some matches yielded just one goal in open play over a six-game stretch. The result is a game where the best-laid plans are constantly undermined by a single bounce of the ball or a misplaced touch—think Manchester United’s 2021-22 season, where their average of 58% possession masked a lack of cutting edge, or Barcelona’s 2021-22 campaign under Xavi, where their possession dominance rarely translated into clear-cut chances.

What’s most striking is how this dynamic has seeped into every tier of the sport. From youth academies, where coaches drill players in positional play at the expense of creativity, to the Champions League, where teams like Inter Milan under Antonio Conte or Atlético Madrid under Diego Simeone have normalized pragmatic football as a pathway to success, the emphasis on “winning ugly” has warped incentives. Clubs chase points over style, and players are rewarded for minimizing risk rather than taking it. The consequence? A sport where the thrill of the unexpected is increasingly replaced by the dread of the inevitable draw—witness the 2022-23 Premier League season, where 28% of matches ended in stalemates, the highest proportion in a decade. The article doesn’t lay the blame solely at managers’ feet; it’s a systemic issue, where the pressure to avoid defeat in high-stakes matches has distorted priorities. The result is a sport where the soul of football—the idea that skill, not luck, should matter most—is slowly eroding.

Football’s soul has always been its unpredictability—but there’s a difference between a game decided by a moment of magic and one decided by a fluke. The Quillette analysis doesn’t predict football’s collapse, but it does warn that if the sport continues to prioritize outcomes over process, it risks losing the very thing that made it universal: the idea that skill, not luck, should matter most.